POLL: How many electoral reality, how much bait?

Original Post: BBC Hindi Website

The election polls - like questions are being raised.

On the one hand it is claimed to be scientific, the other side on the intention of the survey is only being suspected.

Suddenly mode subjects bengal social media has become an issue in the debate Mubahison.

Knowing the trends of consumers in the market yesterday as the methods used for the survey was related to electoral democracy today are important in terms of understanding things.

But the scientific basis behind the poll surveys being given less importance and the role of the market.

Even being favored electoral surveys, but their history is not too good. Poll in India are known to give incorrect results. Take for instance the 2004 and 2009 elections.

Almost all election polls had declared in 2004 that the BJP and their allies will seat between 280 and 240 together.

But he won only 180 seats. Similarly, in 2009 the Congress and its allies, but they will win 262 seats to 200-225

The theoretical basis

Similarly, the recent Assembly elections in Delhi pole only kept open to the polls. Of scientific medicine man who speaks of election polls had closed party once again. But the question arises that why after all? See the first scientific basis behind it.

Survey techniques theoretical basis of science is based on a model that has become the recognized almost done. Knowledge Objective Objective knowledge claims is not so social science disciplines in the study of how important it can be.

What a person's social and political thinking or behavior can be changed in a number? And also, given what it claims to be free from bias? And the question is whether this claim based on the country's electoral surveys can be considered correct?

Vastness and diversity

If the true value of this technique for a while Even if we still need to understand its limitations for a country like India. In a country where there are fewer variations is therefore possible that such models might represent a group themselves. But as such - are varieties of items, it is unlikely in society.

Given the vastness and diversity of India in election surveys as large numbers of samples are being taken, on the basis of the rules of statistics based on mathematical statistics branch of study, the Standard may not be appropriate enough or believe. And it's hard to talk on the possible outcome of the election.

A Social Research Institute for Social Studies during the election to use the statistical technique but it is understandable that the parties would be inappropriate to talk to the possibilities of win-lose.Collecting samples of the thing aside, one thing is worth notice.

Statistical technique

Now, in science it is considered that there may be some natural systems are simple, some complex and some very complex. For simple systems, but some predictions can be very complicated and complex systems is difficult to say for certain if arrangements can not be predicted.

Simplicity and complexity of the arrangements which depend on those things that are changing. If the variable factors will have fewer and fewer complications in the system will be more stable. It is about a society that is more than the number of variable factors and therefore it should be seen as a complex system.

If the number is relatively low in a society which is said to be stable society and the society are too unstable or complex society, the number can be called. About relatively stable society through statistical techniques that can be said because it is slow to change SPEED.

Sharp changes

But if society is very complex and it changes the speed SPEED A small event can have large consequences. There will be more instability and indecisiveness will continue to have access to the statistics of the political consequences would be a difficult task.

Sociologists would agree that most of the Indian society is not only very complex but is undergoing rapid changes. Most people are undecided about the election. The top leadership is changing drastically. The internal strife of parties has increased. Before the election defection can be gauged by looking at the speed of the system is unstable.

The poll surveyed close to where we could deliver the results, we can understand. Maybe that's why most of the cases are in the wrong poll. In addition to these methods of poll two major problems: the question of capabilities of the language and ask questions.

In order to create an objective list of questions is easy to difficult questions, the answers are searched his objective. As a result, instead of getting to the bottom of the masses becomes objective and purpose is what people want, the question is often lost. Then choose words translated into various languages ​​and also leave an impact on electoral surveys.

May market

And the worst problem of Khabliyt of those surveyed. Many soaps and electoral surveys surveys for companies that use the same kinds of people.

For general surveys, but it can run up to the election controversial survey where it is difficult to be fair.

Some social research institutions claim that they'll do a survey of political science students.

But the answer to how politically contentious environment will respond honestly, it's only a matter of doubt.

Overall social research can be said that the survey may be somewhat useful way or the likes and dislikes of consumers could be one way of knowing, but also the electoral results is not fair to notification .

The truth is that it is people's curiosity may market. Like cricket, it is also a means of making profit is being made. Well it is kept only for entertainment but is claimed to be scientific if it seems ridiculous.

(Author of the Center for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University associate professor.)

Copied from: BBC Hindi Website